Examining Propensity to Vote (PTV) in Anambra State: Does Electoral Integrity Matter?

Abstract

Propensity to vote (PTV), the individual-level disposition or likelihood that an eligible citizen will participate in an election, provides an analytically useful lens for examining Anambra State's persistent pattern of low electoral turnout, which has not exceeded fifty percent in any gubernatorial election since Nigeria's return to democratic rule in 1999. This paper examines whether, and through what mechanisms, electoral integrity, encompassing the perceived and actual fairness, transparency, and reliability of the electoral process, predicts propensity to vote among the Anambra electorate. Drawing on the theory of planned behaviour and the calculus of voting model, and a qualitative synthesis of documented turnout data, election observation reports, and Nigerian electoral behaviour literature, the paper argues that electoral integrity operates as a significant, though not singular, predictor of PTV, functioning primarily through its effect on perceived external political efficacy, the expected benefit term of the voting calculus. The paper situates this analysis within Anambra State's documented turnout history, presented in tabular form, alongside a synthesis of relevant empirical and theoretical literature and a proposed operationalization of electoral integrity and PTV constructs suitable for future primary survey research. The paper concludes that electoral integrity matters for PTV in Anambra State, but its effect is conditioned by insecurity, socioeconomic status, and prior partisan experience, and recommends that turnout-improvement interventions address the specific electoral integrity concerns most salient to the Anambra electorate rather than relying on generic mobilization campaigns.